National Hurricane Center tracking Tropical Storm Oscar. Could another storm develop in Caribbean?
Tropical Storm Oscar is poorly organized this morning as it moves through the central and southeastern Bahamas, according to the latest advisory from the National Hurricane Center.
Oscar is expected to head away from Florida and the United States and there are no disturbances highlighted on the NHC’s tropical outlook map, according to the latest advisory.
The next named storms of the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season will be Patty and Rafael.
Special note on the NHC cone: The forecast track shows the most likely path of the center of the storm. It does not illustrate the full width of the storm or its impacts, and the center of the storm is likely to travel outside the cone up to 33% of the time.
At 8 a.m., the center of Tropical Storm Oscar was located near latitude 22.8 North, longitude 74.7 West.
Oscar is moving toward the northeast near 12 mph. A faster northeastward motion is expected later today and on Wednesday.
On the forecast track, the center of Oscar is expected to move near the southeastern and central Bahamas today, then move away from the Bahamas tonight and Wednesday.
Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph, with higher gusts.
Little change in strength is forecast during the day today. Oscar is expected to become a post-tropical low by tonight or early Wednesday, and then be absorbed by another low pressure area by Thursday.
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles east and northeast of the center.
“Oscar’s small size and continued loss of wind intensity are a couple reasons why Florida should not see notable impacts.”
Will another tropical storm or hurricane form in the Caribbean?
The official “end” of hurricane season may be just over a month away — on Nov. 30 — but there may be more tropical activity on the horizon.
“We suspect there will be another attempt for a tropical depression or tropical storm to brew in the western Caribbean during the middle to the latter part of next week,” Rayno said.
Record warm waters that have helped spur tropical development throughout the season continue, especially in the Caribbean. Combine that with low chances for wind shear and you have conditions that support development of tropical cyclones.
A large storm or gyre may again form near the western Caribbean, which, when factoring in warm waters and low wind shear, could foster new but slow development, AccuWeather said.
“Tropical storms that form in this area late in October and early in November tend to track into Central America or possibly to the north-northeast toward Cuba, Hispaniola and the Bahamas.”
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