Kansas City Royals Lock Up Cornerstone Bobby Witt Jr. For Long Haul
The Kansas City Royals have quietly had an active offseason, adding veteran free agent starting (Seth Lugo and Michael Wacha) and relief (Chris Stratton, Will Smith) pitchers, free agent outfielder Hunter Renfroe and trading for upside plays with injury history in pitchers Kyle Wright and Nick Anderson. But by far their biggest move of all occurred earlier this week, when they locked up their franchise cornerstone, SS Bobby Witt Jr. to an 11-year, $288.8 million deal.
Such deals have been all the rage throughout MLB in recent years, with the Mariners’ signing of CF Julio Rodriguez for 12 years and $209.3 million the most directly comparable. With the free agent prices for established superstars beyond the financial means of small to mid-market clubs, their only hope is to draft/sign and develop their own stars and then lock them for the long haul up early in their careers.
In some cases, like the Brewers’ Jackson Chourio and Tigers’ Colt Keith, this can occur before the player spends a single day in the big leagues. The price tag for those guys was markedly lower than for Rodriguez and Witt, and understandably so. The latter two established their excellence at the game’s top level before signing on the dotted line.
Obviously the Royals are taking some degree of risk with the Witt deal, but also stand to potentially reap significant reward. The key questions that need to answered to determine the efficacy of this deal are: How good is Witt now? How good (and for how long) is he going to be?, and What are some other special features of this contract that need to be taken into consideration?
My gut is that the general consensus regarding Witt’s present status is that of an upwardly mobile player on his way to becoming great. I would counter that he is already great. We’re talking about an above average defensive shortstop with well above average speed and an already well above average offensive game with even more upside.
Though he hit well better in his spacious home park last season than he did on the road, his overall numbers should have been even better given his overall exit speed/launch angle profile. He “should have” performed better on both fly balls and liners than he actually did, and his “Tru” Production+ of 127 compares favorably to his 115 wRC+.
His exceptional bat to ball skills allowed him to post a 17.4% K rate last season, over a full standard deviation lower than league average. His 5.8% walk was low, but expect that to increase as he learns to accept the “respect” walks that pitchers will likely become increasingly willing to issue.
I searched for two-year veteran, age 23 and younger MLB shortstops from this century who recorded comparable or better production, and came up with a pretty solid set of names: Fernando Tatis Jr., Corey Seager, Carlos Correa, Hanley Ramirez, Francisco Lindor, Gleyber Torres and Wander Franco. All of them remained potent bats. Franco is a case all unto his own that will be discussed on another day, but talent-wise he belongs. Tatis, Ramirez and Torres were not long for the shortstop position. Seager and Correa are still shortstops, though its arguable that either will be there for many more years. Lindor remains a long-term shortstop fixture. Witt is in the league of all of these guys with the bat, and only Lindor is his peer with the glove.
Bobby Witt Jr. is likely to become a much better offensive player than he is already, is likely to remain at the shortstop position for a long time, and projects as above average with the glove there for at least the intermediate term. And the foundation he’s building upon isn’t shabby, either – I would have placed him 2nd on my hypothetical 2023 AL MVP ballot behind only Shohei Ohtani.
Now let’s look at the intricacies of this contract. Witt can opt out of it after the 2031, 2032, 2033 and 2034 series. Essentially, he is guaranteed $148.8 million over the next seven years, and can then either opt into $35 million annual salaries those four years or elect free agency.
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If Royal fans look at this deal as a seven-year pact, they have to be pretty happy about it. They’re getting Witt’s age 24-30 seasons, which will include some semblance of his ultimate peak, if typical aging trends prevail. The club is very likely to capture some value above contract over that span, despite the player being very well compensated. If a competitive club is built around Witt over this span, it stands to reason that player and club will find a way to continue their working relationship.
Is there some chance that $35 million per annum from 2031-34 makes his contract an albatross by then? Sure there is, but I’m not betting on it, especially at t
he front end of that window.
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