Tadej Pogačar: Too Dominant Too Soon?
As Pogačar reigns supreme, we wonder whether his spring success signals a sustainable season or if potential pitfalls lie ahead.
By Molly HurfordPublished: Apr 02, 2024 4:52 PM EDT
bookmarks
Save Article
103rd volta ciclista a catalunya 2024 stage 6
David Ramos//Getty Images
Gear-obsessed editors choose every product we review. We may earn commission if you buy from a link. How we test gear.
When Tadej Pogačar won Strade Bianche with a solo effort for—checks notes—81 km of racing, sailing through the finish almost three minutes ahead of second place, people noticed.
Even his chief rival Mathieu van der Poel was stunned, so much so that when Pogačar posted his victory on Instagram, Van der Poel trolled him, commenting, “Mate, I’m getting a bit scared here…😳”
Advertisement – Continue Reading Below
Since then, a scan of his Instagram shows pretty much one win after another, most recently at Volta a Catalunya, where he won four stages as well as the General Classification, the Points jersey, and the Climber’s jersey. He did not win Milano-Sanremo, though he did finish on the podium. I point this out because I’m going to reference his Instagram post about the race momentarily:
So, Has Pogačar Peaked Too Soon?
Can the Slovenian rider keep this up through the season? Or is this kind of performance just what we can start to expect from a few of the top contenders at this point? Is the level just that far up?
There are a couple of explanations for his remarkable season thus far, and predictions we can make. Let’s start with the facts:
Pogačar didn’t come out of nowhere. Ahead of this season, he was already a cycling phenom on the verge of becoming one of cycling’s GOATs, despite his young age. He has eleven Tour de France stage wins and two overall Tour wins. The rest of his ProCyclingStats profile is primarily yellow, indicating wins on wins on top of wins.
Speaking of his young age—he is 25 years old—researchers have analyzed pro cyclists and found that the ages for peak performance are 26.3, 26.5, 26.2, and 27.5 years for sprinters, all-rounders, one-day specialists, and general classification riders, respectively. Pogačar still has room to develop as a racer, and for the next two to three years, he’s only coming more and more into his prime.
Advertisement – Continue Reading Below
His coach is the famed Iñigo San Millán, the man who popularized Zone 2 training in recent years. He is what you could call ’a very smart guy who probably knows what he’s doing.’ As he pointed out to me when we spoke last summer about Zone 2 (while he was in a follow car watching Pogacar on a climb), “Let’s be clear: A normal person would be in Zone 5 trying to keep up with Pogačar in his Zone 2.”
Finally, he is having fun. To come back to that Milano-San Remo Instagram post I mentioned, very few pro cyclists at this level display this kind of sheer joy in bike racing, especially when they don’t win the race. And that matters. It’s not cycling-related, but this photo called to mind a moment in Born to Run where author Chris McDougall cites legendary running coach Pat Vigil, saying:
Vigil had become convinced that the next leap forward in human endurance would come from a dimension he dreaded getting into: character. Not the “character” other coaches were always rah-rah-rah-ing about; Vigil wasn’t talking about “grit” or “hunger” or “the size of the fight in the dog.” In fact, he meant the exact opposite. Vigil’s notion of character wasn’t toughness. It was compassion. Kindness. Love. That’s right: love… He’d figured out the body, so now it was on to the brain. Specifically: How do you make anyone actually want to do any of this stuff? … Back when you were a kid and you had to be yelled at to slow down? Every game you played, you played at top speed, sprinting like crazy as you kicked cans, freed all, and attacked jungle outposts in your neighbors’ backyards. Half the fun of doing anything was doing it at record pace.
That kind of love? Pogačar has it in spades.
Advertisement – Continue Reading Below
So. Is he really just that talented, young, and happy? Yes. But, it is still March and other plausible scenarios could be at play. Let’s explore some of them.
Pogačar is simply being smart about his race schedule
Look, if you were in a position to rack up early season wins in races where the other big guys weren’t on the start line, wouldn’t you?
Even if it means he might slow down a bit later, hitting Strade Bianche hard and making a statement that even had Van der Poel a little nervous is an excellent psychological play on Pogačar’s part. Strade Bianche and Volta Ciclista a Catalunya both had fairly tame start lists, so he had a great opportunity to play, try aggressive attacks, throw down in sprints, and generally test his legs a bit.
italy cycling strade bianche men
NurPhoto//Getty Images
Advertisement – Continue Reading Below
His early-season performances—just a taste of what’s to come
To give his Strade Bianche win some context, according to wheel sponsor ENVE, during his attack, Pogačar had a maximum 5-minute power of 460 watts and an average power of 340 watts. Back to San Millán’s point that Pogačar’s Zone 2 is 99% of people’s Zone 5, 340 watts—while impressive—isn’t ridiculous. Nor is holding 460 watts for five minutes. Pogačar is also a slightly bigger rider, so higher power is expected: He’s 66 kilograms while, for instance, Jonas Vingegaard is 60 kilograms. This is all super impressive, but it’s not superhuman.
18th strade bianche 2024 men’s elite
Pool//Getty Images
A break prior to the Tour de France and the Olympics?
It’s very plausible that Pogačar will take some kind of extended mini-offseason/build break between now and the Tour de France. Who knows, maybe a mini-training camp at altitude? For these riders, assuming they stay healthy, even a two-week gap in racing is enough to recover,
Rrelax, get in some base, and be ready to come back.
Leave a Reply