Kyle Dugger is a free agency priority for the Patriots
The New England Patriots are already in the middle of a franchise-altering offseason. They have a new head coach, restructured their front office, and are expected to overhaul their roster from the top down.
Dugger’s outstanding college play in combination with a very good Senior Bowl performance prompted the Patriots to invest the 37th overall selection in the second round of the 2020 draft in him. Since then, Dugger has managed to carve out a role as a versatile do-it-all member within the New England defensive backfield. He proved himself a cornerstone player on defense as well as a consistent playmaker and emerging leader.
In total, he has appeared in a combined 62 regular season and playoff games for the team. Along the way, Dugger registered nine interceptions, two forced fumbles and recoveries, and three defensive touchdowns.
His impact goes beyond his work on the defensive side of the ball, though. Dugger also has been a regular in the kicking game and at times saw action on all five units. Through his first four seasons in the NFL, he ran back three kickoffs for an average of 28.0 yards and also registered 24 combined tackles.
2023 review
Stats: 17 games (17 starts) | 1,115 defensive snaps (98.0%), 121 special teams snaps (26.4%) | 106 tackles, 11 missed tackles (9.4%), 1 forced fumble | 62 targets, 44 catches (71.0%), 445 yards, 2 TDs, 2 INTs | 15 quarterback pressures (1.5 sacks, 3 hits, 10 hurries) | 2 special teams tackles
Season recap: Coming off the best season of his career, expectation were high for Dugger heading into 2023. That was especially true after long-time Patriots safety Devin McCourty announced his retirement: with the team captain and three-time Super Bowl winner no longer part of New England’s secondary, the team counted on Dugger to help fill the void and establish himself as a true leader within the defense as a whole.
The fourth-year man managed to do that. Starting all 17 of the Patriots’ games, he rarely left the field and finished the season with a team-leading 1,115 of a possible 1,138 defensive snaps (98.0%). At one point he even served as the unit’s on-field signal caller, filling in for an injured Ja’Whaun Bentley.
With McCourty no longer around to patrol the deep parts of the field, the Patriots turned to Dugger to help fill the void. As a consequence, his free safety snaps increased from 10.9 percent in 2022 to 33.3 percent in 2023.
That change in usage came with some growing pains. Despite his natural versatility and experience in the system, Dugger had to readjust on the fly; without the ever-reliable McCourty, he was forced to play increased snaps outside of his established comfort zone and was arguably not entirely used to his strengths (i.e. being aligned closer to the line of scrimmage).
This also impacted his ability to make game-changing plays, something that generally was a problem for the Patriots defense in 2023. After registering four takeaways and returning three of them for touchdowns his previous season, Dugger had “only” two turnovers without finding the end zone even once.
That said, his value to the Patriots’ entire defensive operation was never in question. Dugger was a glue guy in the secondary, even in a comparatively quiet overall season by the own lofty standards he established over the first three years of his career.
Free agency preview
What is his contract history? Dugger’s contract history is pretty straight-forward. A second-round selection in the 2020 draft, he signed a standard four-year deal with the Patriots at a total value of $8.33 million. Due to performance escalators he out-performed that pact: Over the Cap estimates his career earnings to this point at $9.3 million.
Which teams might be in the running? In today’s NFL, the safety position is not valued as highly as the cornerback position. This, in turn, means that fewer teams have glaring needs at the spot. There are a few that might compete with the Patriots for Dugger’s services, should he make it to the open market: the Buffalo Bills, New York Jets, Miami Dolphins, Los Angeles Rams, Seattle Seahawks and Tampa Bay Buccaneers come to mind.
Why should he be expected back? As noted above, Dugger has proven himself as a starter-caliber player and on-field leader in the Patriots secondary. Accordingly, keeping him around long-term would ensure a level of stability and give the team a natural successor to Devin McCourty — one who has shown he can play at a level worthy of Pro Bowl recognition.
Why should he be expected to leave? At the end of the day, the market and Dugger’s perceived value will decide whether or not he will be back. And the team does have reason to be a bit more conservative given his age — he will already turn 28 next month — and somewhat quiet 2023 campaign. If Dugger’s camp is unhappy with what the team offers, it might want to seriously explore other options
should they present themselves.
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